Volkswagen: VW Beetle timing belt, honest info, petroleum products

Question
I have a 98 VW Beetle with only 28,000 miles on it.  I was told by the local VW dealer that I should replace the timing belt because even with low mileage the rubber in the belt deteriorates after 10 years and a failure would ruin the engine.  I know the mileage is O.K., but am I getting honest info on the likelyhood that the timing belt could fail because of its age?

Answer

Bent_valve Well the dealer has a point, but I always take dealer advice with a grain of salt.  Now, 28k is rather a short life span for a timing belt; 50k - 75k is the norm, unless the car has been subject to extreme driving conditions.  However, although you have low miles, yes, parts made of petroleum products can simply deteriorate over time.  Engine oil is a good example.  Therefore if the normal miles per year were 10k, your belt would effectively have 100k on it, which is very risky.  And unfortunately it is true, if a timing belt on these models should break, the dealer is correct about the damage it could cause.  It is one of the few regular maintenance parts that can fail so catastrophically, because when it goes the pistons will likely crash into the valves, bending them and requiring a major engine repair.
 If it were mine, I would change it and have the piece of mind.